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Discovered in late December 2024, this object of approximately sixty meters (about 197 feet) in diameter initially represented a potential danger for our planet. Subsequently, calculations ruled out this direct threat, although the possibility of a lunar impact in 2032 persisted with an estimated 4.3% chance. This initial uncertainty was linked to an incomplete knowledge of its orbit around the Sun.
Scientists then seized an unexpected opportunity to observe the asteroid with the James Webb Space Telescope in February. This observation period made it possible to track its movement against a background of stars precisely mapped by the European Space Agency's Gaia mission. By comparing its trajectory to these fixed references, the object's orbit could be determined with much greater accuracy.
The measurement was not easy, however, as the asteroid is very faint and the field of view of the telescope's infrared camera is relatively narrow. Despite these constraints, the data obtained provided sufficient precision to eliminate the last doubts about a collision.
These new observations ultimately established that 2024 YR4 would pass 21,200 kilometers (about 13,200 miles) from the lunar surface, ruling out any risk of encounter. It is a close pass, but one that poses no danger to our satellite or to Earth. This event reminds us that near-Earth objects require permanent vigilance.
If the impact had occurred, it would have offered a notable spectacle from Earth and formed a crater approximately one kilometer (about 0.62 miles) across. The energy released would have been similar to that of a major nuclear explosion, and debris could have reached satellites in Earth orbit. This hypothesis is now ruled out, allowing agencies to focus on other objects of interest.