The Arctic will lose its "last ice area" much faster than expected ❄️

The Arctic ice still harbors some sanctuaries. Among them, the "Last Ice Area" seemed to resist the upheavals of climate change. However, a new study suggests that it could disappear much faster than expected, disrupting the balance of this unique ecosystem.


The climate models used until now gave hope that this region would retain its ice for several decades after the complete summer melting of the Arctic Ocean, expected by mid-century. But researchers from McGill University have refined these projections using high-resolution modeling. Their results are alarming: the Last Ice Area could disappear in just ten years after this event.

This region, located mainly north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is a crucial refuge for ice-dependent species. Polar bears, narwhals, walruses, and ringed seals find a stable habitat here in the face of widespread sea ice melting. The rapid disappearance of this last stronghold could further threaten these species already weakened by climate change.

One of the key elements of this new study lies in the consideration of ice transport through the Canadian Archipelago. The researchers show that, under the effect of global warming, a large part of the thick ice from the Last Ice Area could drift southward. By reaching warmer waters, it would melt quickly, accelerating the disappearance of the polar refuge.

The results also highlight the importance of conservation efforts. Since 2019, Canada has designated part of this area as a marine protected area, called Tuvaijuittuq. This temporary status was extended in 2024 for five years, pending a decision on permanent protection. Inuit communities, directly affected, are advocating alongside environmental organizations to preserve this vital ecosystem.

Bruno Tremblay, co-author of the study and professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, explains that the disappearance of the Last Ice Area will largely depend on the evolution of global temperatures. If warming is not controlled, current projections are becoming increasingly pessimistic. The rate of melting now exceeds the estimates of previous models.

The study reminds us that an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer will mark an irreversible turning point for polar ecosystems. The loss of this area would accelerate global climate disruptions, particularly by further reducing the planet's ability to reflect sunlight.

As the Arctic summer sea ice approaches a critical threshold, this work calls for immediate action to limit global warming. Protecting the Last Ice Area could well be the last chance for some iconic species to survive.

What is the Last Ice Area?

The Last Ice Area (LIA) refers to a region of the Arctic where perennial sea ice persists despite global warming. Located mainly north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland, it serves as a refuge for ice-dependent species.

This area is considered the last stronghold of multiyear sea ice, which resists summer melting. Polar bears, walruses, and seals still find a stable habitat here, essential for their survival. Its disappearance would jeopardize these already threatened species.

Scientists now estimate that this region could disappear much faster than initially calculated if global warming continues. Faced with this risk, Canada has designated part of this area as a marine protected area under the name Tuvaijuittuq. Conservation measures are being considered, but only a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could slow this disappearance.