Under a scenario of continued greenhouse gas emissions, the area burned each year in Europe could nearly triple by the end of the century.
The researchers separated several factors that influence wildfires: fire-conducive weather, vegetation, land use, population density, and the ability to control fire outbreaks. Their aim was to measure the contribution of each factor.
Forest fire in Europe.
Source: European Wildfires 2025 / ArcGIS StoryMaps
Heat and drought make vegetation easier to ignite and promote the spread of flames. In the scenario studied, where emissions remain high, this factor alone would increase the annual burned area by about 192% by 2100. This corresponds to almost three times the reference value.
Under a low-emissions scenario, the weather-related increase would be much smaller but still significant, at around 39%. The researchers obtained these figures using two wildfire models coupled with a model representing vegetation and cropland.
Human action significantly changes the outcome. Better prevention, management of flammable vegetation, and effective resources for containing fires can limit their spread.
However, this is not enough everywhere. With strong warming, wildfire activity still increases in around 55% of European regions exposed to fire, even if management capacities continue to improve. Weather conditions then become favorable enough for wildfires to locally outweigh some of the gains achieved through prevention and intervention.
Regional differences also matter greatly. Population density, changes in vegetation, and land use alter the risk from one area to another. Agricultural landscapes, forests, and sparsely populated areas do not respond in the same way to the same hot and dry conditions.
These results mainly make it possible to test the effects of future choices. The team has made the model data and code available. They can be used to examine other management assumptions and identify the regions where improving prevention resources would have the greatest impact.