A recent study published in
The Lancet reveals that the observed global increase in cancer cases depends less on biology than on socio-economic factors. Social inequalities, exposure to preventable hazards, and difficulties in accessing care are indeed singled out. This phenomenon thus draws a sharp contrast between affluent nations and less privileged ones, where the disease is progressing at a sustained pace.
Global figures show a steady progression. In 2023, cancer was detected in 18.5 million people and led to 10.4 million deaths. Projections for 2050 anticipate 30.5 million new cases and 18.6 million deaths. This growth is largely explained by the expansion and aging of the world's population.
A notable proportion of these deaths could be prevented, since nearly 42% of them in 2023 are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Tobacco occupies first place, responsible for 21% of deaths, followed by an unbalanced diet, high alcohol consumption, and air pollution. These elements particularly affect men, whereas for women, parameters such as unprotected sexual relations or obesity also exert an influence.
Differences between regions of the world are also visible. While age-standardized mortality rates have declined by 24% since 1990 in high-income countries, they have increased by 24% in low-income countries and by 29% in lower-middle-income countries. This dynamic indicates that the burden of cancer is growing more rapidly where healthcare resources are limited, which accentuates disparities.
The analysis is based on information from specialized registries, vital registration systems, and interviews conducted with the relatives of deceased persons. However, the authors point out certain limitations, such as insufficient reliable data in several countries or the omission of certain infections linked to cancers. These gaps could lead to an underestimation of the true scale of the phenomenon.