Why the Arctic could burn by the end of the century

Permafrost, that permanently frozen layer of soil, could soon fuel an unexpected danger. Violent wildfires, in regions where fire was once almost absent, now threaten to devastate the Arctic.

By 2100, a surge of wildfires could ignite Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. This unprecedented situation is being studied by climatologists using advanced models.


This research, published in Nature Communications, reveals that the thawing of permafrost is exacerbating climate change. Indeed, this phenomenon leads to a sharp drop in soil moisture and dries out the atmosphere. The result: perfect conditions for fire spread.

Scientists used the Community Earth System Model to simulate the evolution of the Arctic. They incorporated data from 1850 to 2100, accounting for a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

The results indicate that, in the second half of the century, a sudden increase in forest fires could occur. In just a few years, a radical transformation of Arctic landscapes is possible. Permafrost thaw could release massive amounts of CO2, further intensifying global warming. These fires would feed into a climate feedback loop, creating new conditions conducive to their own proliferation.

The fragile ecosystems of the Arctic are particularly vulnerable to these fires, which could disrupt natural balances. Vegetation and frozen soils have so far served as carbon reservoirs, helping to maintain the global climate balance.

Researchers emphasize the importance of taking immediate steps to monitor these developments. Implementing adapted management strategies would be essential to mitigate future impacts. The consequences could be devastating, not only for the Arctic but for the global climate. These forecasts alarm experts, who are calling for preventive actions before the situation becomes irreversible.

What is permafrost and why is it important for the climate?

Permafrost is a layer of soil or rock that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years. Found primarily in polar regions, it covers nearly 24% of the Northern Hemisphere. This layer remains permanently frozen, trapping carbon, methane, and organic matter within the soil.

When permafrost thaws due to global warming, the organic matter trapped in the soil decomposes, releasing CO2 and methane. This process creates an enhanced greenhouse effect, increasing local temperatures and drying out soils. This drying out, combined with atmospheric warming, promotes the occurrence of large-scale wildfires in areas that were once very humid.