The 2023 Canadian wildfires are estimated to have reduced photovoltaic production in North America and Europe.
This estimate covers five months, from May to September. It shows how a disaster can disrupt electricity grids located several thousand kilometers away.
Illustrative image from Unsplash
These fires released immense quantities of aerosols, fine particles carried through the atmosphere. Their plumes crossed much of the Northern Hemisphere. By absorbing and scattering sunlight, these particles reduce the radiation available to photovoltaic panels.
The team used a recent Earth system model to reconstruct the radiative and thermal effects of the smoke. It then converted these atmospheric variations into potential electricity generation. The result therefore concerns modeled generation, not the direct sum of readings from each installation.
The central deficit reaches 6.38 terawatt-hours between May and September 2023. This quantity represents 2.8 % of the photovoltaic generation calculated over the two regions. The modeled losses are larger in North America, located closest to the fires.
The study also estimates the economic shortfall at $1.88 billion. Despite a larger energy deficit in North America, the calculated cost appears higher in Europe. Regional differences in the electricity market explain this contrast.
The missing solar generation is also associated with an estimated burden of 2.083 megatonnes of carbon dioxide. This estimate is explained in particular by the other electricity sources mobilized when photovoltaics generate less.
These results do not establish the precise losses suffered by each country or operator. Rather, they reveal a transcontinental risk that is still poorly integrated into energy forecasts.