A scientific analysis published on July 23 shows that extreme heat has severely worsened the drought in Europe in 2026. In the western part of the continent, soils dried out despite a relatively wet start to the year. The growing demand for water from the atmosphere thus played a central role in this crisis.
Drought does not depend solely on the amount of rainfall received. When the air warms, it increases evaporation from soils and transpiration from plants, as long as water remains available. This "atmospheric thirst" can therefore quickly deplete surface reserves.
Researchers studied western and eastern Europe separately, as the mechanisms and periods involved differ. In the west, soil drought between April and June 2026 occurs about once every five years in the current climate. It would be about five times more likely than in a climate with an average temperature 1.4 °C lower.
In the east, such an event should occur approximately every fifteen years under current conditions. Climate change has made it about eleven times more likely, according to the synthesis of models and observations.
The effects are already visible in several sectors. Water levels in many European rivers are low, disrupting river transport and reducing hydroelectric production. Agriculture is also suffering significant losses, while fires are increasing, particularly in Spain and France.
This situation follows an exceptionally hot June in western Europe. According to Copernicus, this region experienced its hottest June on record, with an average temperature 3.06 °C above the 1991-2020 reference period. The coming weeks will therefore heavily depend on the possible return of precipitation.