Methane emissions from Siberia increased sharply between 2010 and 2023. A new study estimates this rise at 12.0 ± 1.9 million tonnes per year over the period, nearly a doubling. The phenomenon combines two main drivers: more productive wetlands in the west and more fires in the east.
Methane traps more heat than carbon dioxide over a few decades, but it stays in the atmosphere for less time. Tracking its evolution is therefore particularly useful for understanding the climate effect of rapid changes affecting high latitudes.
Ergaki mountain range, Sayan Mountains, Russia.
Image Wikimedia
To measure the Siberian trend, the researchers combined observations from the Japanese GOSAT satellite with ground stations and atmospheric measurement towers. This approach makes it possible to estimate emissions at large scale from concentrations actually observed in the air, rather than simply adding up theoretical sources.
The average increase reaches about 1.1 million additional tonnes of methane per year. However, it does not come from the same process everywhere. In western Siberia, which is wetter, higher temperatures and hydrological changes favor microbial methane production in waterlogged soils.
In the east, the trend appears more linked to fires. Warmer and drier conditions favor their frequency and intensity, with direct methane releases during combustion. This distinction matters: all of the measured increase therefore does not come from direct degassing of thawing permafrost.
Specifically, the authors attribute about 0.4 million tonnes per year of annual growth to the dominant sources in the west, versus about 0.7 million to those in the east. Uncertainties remain large, because natural emissions vary strongly depending on the weather, the state of the soils and the extent of fires.
The study also projected this trend through 2050 under a very high emissions scenario. In this case, the increase in Siberian emissions could offset about 20% of the global human-caused methane reductions envisioned for climate goals. This would complicate efforts, without erasing them entirely.
One important limitation remains: precisely linking observed emissions to the depth of thaw, soil water or released carbon requires more local measurements. Future campaigns will therefore need to more closely combine satellites, atmospheric towers, fire data and direct permafrost observations.